By Drew DeBerry
So this year, when the Oscar nominations came out, I decided I was going to make it my goal to watch every movie nominated for Best Picture at this year’s Oscars. I am writing this on the Tuesday before the Oscars and can officially say I’ve reached this goal. In this article I’m going to highlight all of the nominees (as well as some other movies that missed out on Best Picture but were nominated elsewhere) and give my predictions on who will win what at the Oscars
^=Personal favorite in category
*= Winner Prediction
TLDR
Predictions
Best Picture: Anora
Best Director: Sean Baker - Anora
Best Actor: Adrien Brody as Laszlo Toth - The Brutalist
Best Actress: Demi Moore as Elisabeth Sparkle - The Substance
Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin as Benji Kaplan - A Real Pain
Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana as Rita Mira Castro - Emilia Perez
Best Original Screenplay - Anora
Best Adapted Screenplay - Conclave
Best Animated Feature Film - The Wild Robot
Best International Feature Film - I’m Still Here
Best Original Score - The Brutalist
Best Original Song - “El Mal” (Emilia Perez)
Best Sound - Dune: Part Two
Best Production Design - Wicked
Best Cinematography - The Brutalist
Best Makeup and Hairstyling- The Substance
Best Costume Design - Wicked
Best Film Editing - Anora
Best Visual Effects - Dune: Part Two
The Apprentice
- Nominated for Best Actor (Sebastian Stan as Donald Trump)
- Nominated for Best Supporting Actor (Jeremy Strong as Roy Cohn)^
Prediction: 0 Wins
Starting off this list today, we have the most recent movie and the most surprising I’ve watched on this list. I had low expectations for a Donald Trump biopic since I’m quite frankly tired of seeing the same bland Trump impressions over and over again in the media. But this film delivered incredible performances and beautiful aesthetics.
Sebastian Stan does a great job slowly adapting some of the subtle Trump-isms until he has completely disappeared into the role of late-80s Trump by the end of the film. Jeremy Strong’s role as Roy Cohn, Donald Trump’s mentor, was a highlight of the film for me. I was a huge fan of Jeremy Strong when he was on Succession, but this role showed me that he is one of the most versatile and talented actors working in Hollywood, which is why he is my personal favorite nominee for Best Supporting Actor.
The acting is not the only strength of the movie as I also feel that it looks phenomenal. The movie starts in 70 mm which would be the traditional film used in the 1970s, and once we hit Trump’s rise to power, it switches to HD digital film. It is one of those nice touches that adds depth to the movie. I did have my issues with it though. I do think the film is a bit too sympathetic to Roy Cohn at the end of the movie and while I understand why, I feel like they were almost letting him off the hook for the messed up shit he did throughout his life and I didn’t like that. Still a way better movie than it has any right to be.
Awards:
I think Sebastian Stan is wonderful in this movie but I unfortunately don’t think this was the right year for a Trump biopic to come out and do really well at the Oscars. Maybe if he lost the election and the world wasn’t experiencing Trump fatigue, it may be a different story. If I were choosing the winner for Best Supporting Actor, it would be very close between two people, but I think I would give it to Jeremy Strong. I do not think that he will win unfortunately, as there seems to be a clear favorite in this category.
The Apprentice - Official Trailer
Sing Sing
- Nominated for Best Actor (Colman Domingo as Divine G Whitfield)
- Nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay
- Nominated for Best Original Song (“Like A Bird”)^
Prediction: 0 Wins
While there are films that didn’t make Best Picture that I liked more than Sing Sing, it is the one I am the most bewildered to see snubbed this year.
An aspect of this film that I found to be extremely cool was that many of the prisoners in the movie are played by formerly incarcerated men who went through the same program. It shows the tangible effects that a program like this can have on a person and how it can turn one’s life around. I will always preach about the healing power that the arts, music and theater can have on a person. My experience with theater is limited but the finite amount I do have taught me a lot about myself as a person and served as a source of community and escapism; the film did a lovely job of capturing that feeling.
If I do have one issue with this movie it is that it can be a bit too ‘feel-good’ for my taste. It was certainly a welcome break to have a more wholesome movie in between massive bummers like ‘I’m Still Here’ and ‘The Brutalist’. But there are times where the movie feels a bit too sanitized and happy go lucky. With that being said, this movie does a fantastic job at capturing the intoxicating power that the arts have to shape how we think, feel and act.
Awards:
I think that Colman Domingo is absolutely sensational in this movie, playing a broken man who is constantly trying to suppress the hurt he feels throughout the movie. When his character eventually lets go in the third act it is extremely cathartic. However, I do not think he is going to win, but he is a very close 2nd personal favorite for me in this category. “Like a Bird”, the song that plays at the end of Sing Sing would be my personal choice for Best Original Song. However it is up against songs from a musical, which I do not think will bode well for it. The screenplay for this movie is quite strong, but the Adapted Screenplay category this year is also quite strong and I don’t even think Sing Sing would even be the second option for that award.
Sing Sing | Official Trailer HD | A24
Nosferatu
- Nominated for Best Costume Design
- Nominated for Best Cinematography
- Nominated for Best Makeup and Hair Styling
- Nominated for Best Production Design
Prediction: 0 Wins
I was able to see Nosferatu in a movie theater with my partner shortly after it came out and we both thoroughly enjoyed it. I must say this movie did not disappoint at all. It delivers on that grim gothic atmosphere you’d come to expect from a Robert Eggers movie (the man behind ‘The Witch’ and ‘The Lighthouse’), with plenty of debauchery and perversion to boot.
Bill Skarsgard delivers an amazing performance as Nosferatu. He is known for these inhuman and monstrous feeling characters in horror movies but here he is on his A game. Lily Rose Depp also delivers a very captivating performance as Ellen Hutton. I do think the pacing drags a bit in the latter half and Willem Dafoe’s talent feels a bit wasted here, but overall, this is the most fun I've had with a horror movie in ages.
Awards:
I will discuss this more when I cover The Substance, but the Oscars are historically not very kind to the genre of horror and I think it will be an uphill battle for Nosferatu to win in any categories. Nosferatu is a very technically impressive movie, but it has the misfortune of being in the running the same year as Wicked, The Substance and Dune Part 2, all of which I think are a bit flashier in their respective categories. I think the movie's best shot at a win is in Cinematography or Costume Design as I do think the movie looks fantastic throughout and the costumes really add to the Victorian English aesthetic. However, I feel like there is a very obvious winner for the Hair and Makeup category and Production Design is likely gonna go to a movie that is nominated for Best Picture, which Nosferatu is not. This is a prediction that I hope I get wrong, I would love to see Nosferatu go home with an Oscar on Sunday
NOSFERATU - Official Trailer [HD] - Only In Theaters December 25
A Real Pain
- Nominated for Best Supporting Actor (Kieran Culkin as Benji Kaplan)*
- Nominated for Best Original Screenplay
Prediction: 1 Win
This was the only movie I watched for this project to make me cry. This is Jesse Eisenberg’s first major film and while this film definitely could’ve used a bit of subtlety in its script (there are things that are spelled out that I think could have spoken for themselves), it still manages to tell an emotional story without coming off contrived or disingenuous.
I really connected to the dynamic that the two cousins had throughout the movie. They have issues with each other and they fight but at the end of the day you can tell how deeply they care for each other. I feel like anyone with a sibling or family member they are close to will be able to get something out of the way this movie portrays grief.
One thing that makes this movie work so well is the outstanding performance by Kieran Culkin. I’ve been a fan of Culkin’s since getting into Succession so getting to see his career progress through that show and into this movie has been fascinating. The way his character processes grief and reacts to the world around him is so odd and simultaneously authentic. A Real Pain is a beautiful movie and well worth checking out.
Awards:
For Best Original Screenplay, it definitely has a chance of winning, as the movie won this award at the BAFTAs last week. However, I think missing out on Best Picture (I have to image this and Sing Sing were 11th and 12th) screws with the film’s chances at the Oscars. I think Best Original Screenplay will go to a movie that is in contention for the Big Prize, and unfortunately that leaves A Real Pain in the dust.
Don’t be too sad for this movie though, because it is all but guaranteed to win Best Supporting Actor. Kieran Culkin has won for this movie at every major awards show so far (SAG Awards, Golden Globes, BAFTAs). I am conflicted about this because Kieran Culkin is in maybe 5 minutes less of the movie than Jesse Eisenberg’s character and as such I view them more as co-leads. This feels kind of unfair to other actors who stole this show this year with far less screen time.
A REAL PAIN | Official Trailer | Searchlight Pictures
The Wild Robot
- Nominated for Best Animated Feature*
- Nominated for Best Original Score
- Nominated for Best Sound
Prediction: 1 Win
Dreamworks Animations is one of those studios whose output is as a whole pretty average, but who seem to drop a banger every few years. In 2022 it was the wonderful Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, which blew everyone’s expectations out of the water. In 2024, we got another certified banger; The Wild Robot.
This movie is directed by the same person behind the How to Train Your Dragon trilogy and I feel like that really shines through here. This might be the best any Dreamworks movie has ever looked, it is so color and vibrant and gorgeous to look at. This movie is also able to tell a lot of its story in the first half with minimal dialogue, which I commend. Even when the movie does get into more conventional “kids movie” faire, it is always incredibly charming and interesting to watch. Definitely worth a view!!
Awards:
The Wild Robot is a pretty safe bet to win Best Animated Feature. Gone are the days of the 2010s where Disney and Pixar win in this category no matter what (Moana 2 is not even nominated) and honestly it feels very refreshing to have our top 3 contenders for this award this year be a Latvian movie about a cat surviving a flood, an atmospheric Dreamworks movie and a Wallace and Gromit movie.
While I am happy to see this movie up for Best Original Score as it is not very often that an Animated movie that isn’t a Disney musical makes it into this category I do not think that this movie will win Best Sound or Best Score. Best Sound in the past few years seem to alternate between two genres; musicals and big action movies, of which The Wild Robot is neither. Still, the music in this film is sweeping and brilliant and even if I am not picking it as my personal favorite or my winner prediction, I am happy to see it here.
The Wild Robot | Official Trailer
Nickel Boys
- Nominated for Best Picture
- Nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay^
Prediction: 0 Wins
The first of our nominees to discuss is Nickel Boys, which barely snuck into Best Picture and also snagged a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay. Nickel Boys is definitely not a light watch, this film gets very dark and depressing and while the twist at the end is relatively obvious, it still packs an emotional punch. What is truly special about this movie is that it is filmed entirely from a first-person perspective.
I am going to be candid for a second, this is the film I am talking about today that I believe got the most robbed from making it into other categories. No other movie this year looks quite like this or is shot quite like this, it is full of experimental and fascinating shots. Yet somehow it could not even get nominated for Best Cinematography. I also think the director, RaMell Ross, should have been nominated for Best Director. This is Ross’ first feature-length film and if this is just the beginning, then he is going places. The choices he makes in what to show and what not to show, and whose perspective we should see are all very smart and signs of a director well beyond their years. I think Nickel Boys will be regarded as a modern classic in about 10 years.
Awards:
Unfortunately I do not think Nickel Boys has a chance in hell of winning Best Picture. Typically, films with less than 5 nominations do not win Best Picture, the only time since 2000 that it has happened was in 2018 with CODA, which had three nominations. This movie would be my pick for sure for Best Adapted Screenplay. Since we don’t see the main character for most of the movie the dialogue has to do a lot of heavy lifting when it comes to telling the story. Unfortunately it does not seem to be the favorite to win this year. So I’m unfortunately not predicting a gold rush for Nickel Boys 🙁
NICKEL BOYS | Official Trailer
A Complete Unknown
- Nominated for Best Picture
- Nominated for Best Director (James Mangold)
- Nominated for Best Actor (Timothee Chalamet as Bob Dylan)
- Nominated for Best Supporting Actor (Edward Norton as Pete Seeger)
- Nominated for Best Supporting Actress (Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez)
- Nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay
- Nominated for Best Sound
- Nominated for Best Costume Design
Prediction: 0 Wins
The phrase ‘Oscar bait’ gets thrown around a lot to describe movies that feel designed in a factory to win as many Oscars as possible. While I don’t love this term as I feel like people use this phrase too liberally or will use it to write off films from genres they don’t typically like, this particular movie feels like total Oscar bait. I will be the first to admit that this movie did not click for me at all. I think it has its strengths, I think that across the board the performances in this movie are pretty strong.
I am not head over heels for Timothee Chalamet as Bob Dylan, I felt like there were times where it felt like a caricature more than a portrayal, but I have to respect the amount of dedication he put into this role. I think the music is the strongest aspect of this movie. All of the scenes of Joan Baez and Bob Dylan feel very special and capture what made them both such influential and captivating artists. However, outside of the performances and the music I did not get much out of this movie. The story in this movie is a complete mess, it jumps all over the place without giving the audience time to get to know the characters, leading to a lot of pacing issues.
This movie just feels like huge wasted potential for me, because I find Bob Dylan's rise to fame and relationship with the Folk revival scene to be very interesting, but the movie tells his story in the most boring way imaginable. It kind of just paints Bob Dylan as this untouchable figure and the Newport Folk people being a bunch of grouchy boomers and that narrative doesn’t ring true to me and puts a bad taste in my mouth.
Awards:
Something that seems to happen every year at the Oscars is that there’s always one film that receives a litany of nominations and then just can’t materialize any of them into a win. In 2022 it was Banshees of Inisherin, in 2023 it was Martin Scorcese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, and this year I think it will be A Complete Unknown. I don’t see it being in the running for Best Picture, partially because you have to win SOMETHING else to really be considered for Best Picture and I don’t know what this movie can win. I am honestly baffled that this movie is nominated for Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay, I think the direction and the writing were the two weakest aspects of this movie and I really think its Director nomination should have gone to Nickel Boys instead.
The two places that I think A Complete Unknown could potentially win are in Best Actor and Best Costume Design. Timothee Chalamet won the Screen Actors Guild Award last weekend for his role as Bob Dylan and an award like that is nothing to scoff at. I still don’t think he will win, but he is definitely the most likely option behind the frontrunner. Best Costume Design is kind of random. I figured that since the movie is a period piece and honestly does a very good job at capturing that 60s counterculture look it might have a chance. However Wickeds decadent costumes will be hard to beat. I am predicting that A Complete Unknown will be going home Oscar-less despite receiving 8 nominations.
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN | Official Trailer | Searchlight Pictures
I’m Still Here
- Nominated for Best Picture^
- Nominated for Best Actress (Fernanda Torres as Eunice Paiva)^
- Nominated for Best International Feature Film*^
Prediction: 1 Win
If this wasn’t nominated for 3 Oscars I probably never would’ve seen this movie, considering it is in Portuguese and came out in Brazil. And that would’ve been a damn shame because this is now my favorite movie from 2024.
This is such a harrowing film, it does not pull many punches at all when it comes to showing how brutal the Brazilian dictatorship was. The first 45 minutes of this movie makes you put your guard down by having us linger on the family dynamic for a little bit. This section of the movie also does such a good job of depicting the carefree nature of Brazil in the late 60s. It makes it all the more devastating when you realize the direction the film is heading in. We get to see how quickly fascism and corruption consumes anything in its wake and it leads to some of the most uncomfortable scenes I’ve seen all year. There is so much at play that makes this movie succeed the way it does, from its captivating direction to its beautiful cinematography.
However this film wouldn’t be nearly the marvel it is without Mrs. Fernanda Torres. I’ll say it right now - Fernanda Torres gives the best performance of the year point blank period. The ability of Torres to say a thousand words with a single glance in this movie is astonishing. Throughout the movie you watch Eunice Paiva’s internal struggle between keeping her family together and finding out what happened to her husband. Her performance captures every emotion the writing wants us to feel to a T. The movie does not focus on the larger geopolitical context of the conflict in Brazil and centers everything on this transcendent performance of a woman whose life is crumbling around her. Whenever this movie eventually makes it to streaming, please please do yourself a favor and watch it.
Awards:
I’m Still Here is nominated in 3 categories. Best International Feature Film, which was expected, and Best Actress and Best Picture which both came as massive surprises on Oscar nominations morning. Throughout this awards season, I’m Still Here has been the little film that could. Fernanda Torres took everyone by surprise in December when she won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama. Since then this movie has been building momentum and acclaim among audiences.
As I stated earlier, Fernanda Torres gave my favorite performance of the year, however this year is ultra-competitive for Best Actress. There are three powerhouse performances this year that have a shot to take this prize. Unfortunately, I think that the lack of consistent distribution of I’m Still Here in America has hurt her chances at winning the Oscar. I think that if I’m Still Here received a wider release in the US, she would have great odds, but unfortunately we have to account for the fact that her movie is less popular than the other two frontrunners for the Best Actress category.
I’m Still Here would be my personal choice for Best Picture but as previously described with Nickel Boys, I don’t think this movie has the type of clout needed to win the Big Prize. My optimistic prediction is that I’m Still Here beats out Emilia Perez for Best International Feature Film. It’s clear that the Academy enjoys Emilia Perez more than the general public does but I just have a hard time seeing them give Emilia Perez this Oscar purely because of optics. I’ll go into a bit more detail when I discuss Emilia Perez, but Emilia Perez is a film about Mexico that is by and large despised by the Mexican community. The (French) director of Emilia Perez has also claimed that Spanish is the language of poor people and of poverty. On the other hand, I’m Still Here seems to be revered by the Brazilian community, who clearly connected with this movie because it depicted events that many of them lived through. The passion that Brazilians had towards this movie is honestly a big reason as to how it managed to crossover and find success in the US. I think that if the Academy knows what they’re doing, they will give the Best International Feature Film Oscar to I’m Still Here.
I'M STILL HERE | Official Trailer (2025)
Conclave
- Nominated for Best Picture
- Nominated for Best Actor (Ralph Fiennes as Cardinal Thomas Lawrence)
- Nominated for Best Supporting Actress (Isabella Rosselini as Sister Agnes)
- Nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay*
- Nominated for Best Score
- Nominated for Best Production Design
- Nominated for Best Costume Design
- Nominated for Best Film Editing
Prediction: 1 Win
Conclave is a movie I wanted to like more than I actually did. I love Ralph Fiennes. I love movies about social politics and their implications. I love 12 Angry Men (which this movie is clearly inspired by). But I don’t know man, this movie just didn’t leave an impact on me the way I was hoping it would. I think that Ralph Fiennes is the best part of this movie and he is a lot of why it still works for me. Watching him struggle with his own faith in God as he untangles a web of political intrigue in order to name a new Pope is fascinating. Watching him react to the debauchery and buffoonery around him is moving. However this film just feels a bit too… I don’t know, sterile and impersonal to me.
The characters, outside of Ralph Fiennes (and the priest that hits his vape throughout the movie) are not very memorable and the movie has its visually striking moments but by and large it looked a bit dull for the fact the whole movie takes place in the fucking Vatican. However my main issue with the movie is that it bounces back and forth between portraying the situation as gravely serious and playing into the absurdity of the situation and I wish it would choose a tone. I liked the direction they went with the ending, even if I do think it could have been executed a bit better. Overall I see the appeal of this movie and it clearly has its merits, but it did not speak to me. Nevertheless, you can check Conclave out on Peacock!!
Awards:
Conclave is by far the hardest film for me to pin down for these predictions. I think it could win nothing but it also could win Best Picture, it is really bizarre. I do not think this film is going to win in Best Sound, Best Costume Design or Best Production Design, as it is up against more technically impressive movies. Isabella Rossellini gives a great albeit very brief performance on this movie and unfortunately, I think that brevity is stopping her from winning for Best Supporting Actress. Ralph Fiennes is definitely great in this movie as Sir Thomas Lawrence, but the way the precursor awards shows have gone, Best Actor is likely to be a footrace between Adrien Brody for The Brutalist and Timothee Chalamet for A Complete Unknown.
The categories where this movie is looking strong are Best Editing, Best Adapted Screenplay and surprisingly, Best Picture. Best Editing is going to be very close between this and another frontrunner for Best Picture. I do think the editing is the strongest aspect of this movie so I would be okay with this getting an upset victory. Given the way the precursor awards shows have gone, Conclave will win Adapted Screenplay as it has everywhere. While I’m not crazy about this film I would not hate to see it win this as I do think it is commendable to make something as seemingly boring as the election of a Pope feel engaging.
I think that this movie has a shot at Best Picture, BUT only if it wins both of these awards. Argo from 2012 won Best Picture with the exact same combination of wins. Those are probably two of the best Oscar’s to win if you want to win Best Picture, because they are more closely tied to “making the film” than the Performance and Cosmetic categories. However, if it loses either of these awards, I think Conclaves chances of winning Best Picture are significantly lower. After some thinking, I predict that Conclaves will win just the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar.
CONCLAVE - Official Trailer [HD] - Only In Theaters October 25
Dune: Part Two
- Nominated for Best Picture
- Nominated for Best Sound*^
- Nominated for Best Production Design^
- Nominated for Best Cinematography
- Nominated for Best Visual Effects*^
Prediction: 2 Wins
Nickel Boys might have been the movie that I felt was the most robbed, but Dune Part Two is the one that I am most surprised don’t get more nominations. 5 nominations is nothing to scoff at, but the first film got a whopping 10 nominations and 6 wins. I also think this movie should have been nominated for Best Director. Denis Villeneuve does a sensational job of bringing this universe to life. I also like Timothee’s performance as the prophet Paul Atreides in this movie and I honestly liked it more than the performance he WAS nominated for. He is able to balance Paul’s reluctance to become a prophet with his desire for justice and the result is a very captivating performance. Hell, even Austin Butler gives a supporting performance here that I felt should’ve been in consideration for Best Supporting Actor.
As someone who liked but did not love the first Dune film, I think this second one is better in every possible way. The writing feels a lot less stilted and more dynamic, the science fiction jargon is a lot more digestible and the character dynamics are so much more interesting. The best thing I can compare this movie to is The Empire Strikes Back, where it feels like it was really able to take what made people adore the predecessor and heighten it to new levels. All in all this is an epic, grandiose and larger than life movie and I cannot wait for the next installment. Check it out for yourself over on Netflix!!
Awards:
While I do think this film got snubbed from some categories, it is so undeniably strong in Technical aspects that I would be shocked to see it not win at least one award. Best Picture is definitely going to be a longshot, but it has a decent chance in the other 4 categories it is in. Best Cinematography is it’s least certain win, but even there it is not out for the count. This movie would be my choice to win Best Production Design, but the presence of a big movie musical like Wicked in this category gives me some pause.
I think that Dune Part Two is going to win Best Sound and Best Visual Effects, and it would be my personal choice for both of those categories. A big aspect of Dune and how they are able to create such vivid atmospheres is the sound design. The first film also won in this category and I see no reason why it wouldn’t win again. A Best Visual Effects win for this movie speaks for itself, this is easily the largest and most breathtaking movie to come out all year. No other film this year quite reached the crazy standards the VFX team on Dune are working at.
While I’m definitely surprised that Dune Part Two did not do better at this years Oscar’s, I have to remember the Lord of the Rings Trilogy. Fellowship of the Ring received 11 nominations and the first Dune movie had 10, similarly The Two Towers had 6 nominations while Dune Part Two had 5. Return of the King then went on to tie the record for most Academy Awards won by a single movie, so I am hoping that means the Academy is saving their praise for Dune: Messiah. At the end of the day, I think Dune Part Two will be winning two awards.
Dune: Part Two | Official Trailer
The Substance
- Nominated for Best Picture
- Nominated for Best Director
- Nominated for Best Actress (Demi Moore as Elisabeth Sparkle)*
- Nominated for Best Original Screenplay
- Nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling*^
Prediction: 2 Wins
Other than I’m Still Here, I am not rooting for any movie harder than I am for The Substance. The Substance follows a washed up actress named Elisabeth Sparkle, played by Demi Moore, who decides to take an experimental drug that will make her appear young. That’s as much as I feel comfortable sharing, because I wouldn’t dare spoil the twists and turns this wild movie takes. This movie feels like the Barbie movie in the way it is hilariously unsubtle. Every theme and plot device they use is basically just yelling the theme of the movie at you. Yet similar to Barbie I feel like the movie works because of its lack of subtlety.
The reason I adore The Substance so much is because movies like this do not win awards. This is straight up a body horror movie with crazy prosthetics and batshit insanity galore. However, despite how unsubtle and brash this movie is, it feels like it is happening at an important time, with our beauty standards slowly shifting back to the skinny diet culture of the 2000s. This movie gets at the very real fear of aging and how uncontrollably and unpredictably it happens. Also, as a horror movie buff, I am biased towards this movie because it gives me exactly what I wanted, which is a campy horror movie with iconic performances and sickening practical effects.
Awards: Similar to I’m Still Here, this is another underdog movie that has been building momentum throughout the season. As I alluded to earlier, Best Actress is a tight race between Demi Moore, Fernanda Torres and Mikey Madison from Anora. Demi Moore is a legacy actress who is having her big comeback moment this year, so there is a great narrative in place for if she does win. It would also be a highlight to see an actress not taken seriously for so long finally get her flowers. It helps that she gives such a captivating performance in this movie. This movie gives her the space to show what a versatile actress she is and always has been. It’s going to be a very close race but I do think that her legacy will give her the edge to win Best Actress.
I think her odds of winning are slim but I am thrilled to see Coralie Fargeat get nominated for directing The Substance. Every shot of this movie feels rich with detail and symbolism, everything about the way this film is shot is so bold and in your face and I admire it. That being said, I think that for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay getting the nomination is the win, it is not every day you see a Horror movie get nominated for its writing or direction. But the competition is also very high in those 3 categories so I don’t see The Substance winning there.
The one award I am 100% confident it will win is Best Hair and Makeup. If you’ve seen this movie you know exactly why this movie should win hair and makeup, the transformations that Demi Moore goes through for parts of this movie are astonishing and mostly achieved without CGI. It would be a CRIME for this Hair and Makeup team to not be rewarded for the incredible work they did on this movie. This prediction is shaky, but I believe that The Substance will win 2 Oscars.
Wicked
- Nominated for Best Picture
- Nominated for Best Actress (Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba)
- Nominated for Best Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande as Glinda)^
- Nominated for Best Original Score
- Nominated for Best Sound
- Nominated for Best Production Design*
- Nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Nominated for Best Costume Design*^
- Nominated for Best Film Editing
- Nominated for Best Visual Effects
Prediction: 2 Wins
Similar to The Apprentice, I did not go into Wicked with the highest of hopes and while I do have my gripes with it, it is a miracle how good it turned out. While the camera’s were trying their damndest to make everything look grey and dreary, the sets that were designed for this movie are immaculate. It has the feel of the type of big Hollywood blockbuster musical of times past.
This movie is at its best during the big choreography-laden musical numbers, particularly ‘No One Mourns the Wicked’ and ‘One Short Day’, these musical numbers feel bustling and full of life and I enjoy how their shot. They also nailed ‘Defying Gravity’ (sorry to my partner who I know disagrees with this), the budget really allows for this scene to feel as grand and important as it should be. An issue I do unfortunately have with this movie is the pacing, it is alright in the beginning and end but it REALLLLY drags in the middle portion in my opinion. It makes me curious for how the even shorter second act is going to fair in its own movie. I do think that the pacing picks up once Glinda and Elphaba arrive in Oz but that is a whole 2 hours into the movie.
However my biggest issue is with the direction. I don’t feel like Jon Chu does much of anything to elevate this movie. Sure the sets and costumes are gorgeous, but the cinematography and character dialogue are shockingly bland. It makes me feel like this won’t be a movie I’ll get much out of on rewatch. Despite my critiques, I had a great time with this movie, as it is mostly a lovely adaptation.
Awards:
Going into this awards season, Wicked had A LOT of buzz, with many people thinking it had a legitimate shot at Best Picture. Unfortunately that hype has died a bit and I think this movie is looking at a smaller Oscar haul than intended. I think it is out of the running for Best Picture, the last musical adaptation to win this award was 2002’s Chicago and I simply do not think this movie has the sauce to be in the same conversation as Chicago in terms of acclaim. I also do not see Wicked winning in Best Actress, due to how stiff the competition is this year. It is also unlikely to win Best Original Score, Best Sound, Best Makeup, Best Visual Effects or Best Editing (the editing in this movie is bad, it should not be nominated for this).
I think it does not help that since a second Wicked movie coming out in 2025, people are less incentivized to vote for the first one. Ariana Grande is a powerhouse as Glinda in this movie. Homegirl might be a homewrecker but I am unironically rootingn for her to win. She channels Kristen Chenoweth's energy so flawlessly, her comedic timing is impeccable and her singing was pretty spot on too. Unfortunately, Zoe Saldana has been sweeping in this category for Emilia Perez. While Ariana is the second most likely nominee to win, I still don’t see it happening.
I think the two awards Wicked will be walking away with are Best Production Design and Best Costume Design. Every location in this movie, but especially Oz comes alive in this movie and there is such attentional to detail in the sets and the costumes. It really feels like locations like Shiz University and Oz come to life and that is all thanks to the impeccable production that went into this movie. I believe that Wicked will somewhat disappoint at the Oscars and only win two awards.
Emilia Perez
- Nominated for Best Picture
- Nominated for Best Director (Jacques Audiard)
- Nominated for Best Actress (Karla Sofia Gascon as Emilia Perez)
- Nominated for Best Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldana as Rita Mira Castro)*
- Nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay
- Nominated for Best International Feature Film
- Nominated for Best Original Score
- Nominated for Best Original Song (El Mal)*
- Nominated for Best Sound
- Nominated for Best Cinematography
- Nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Nominated for Best Film Editing
Prediction: 2 Wins
I am going to try not to spend too much time on this movie because I don’t think it deserves the attention, but I have a lot to say about how it fails as a movie. Emilia Perez follows a lawyer played by Zoe Saldana who helps a former cartel member fake their death and transition to living their life as a woman. If you’ve been at all plugged in to the awards show conversation this year, you have likely heard about this movie and its tornado of bad taste and scandals.
The French director has gone on record to state that he did little to no research on Mexico at all while making this movie AND that he views Spanish as the “language of poverty”. The result is a movie about Mexico, directed by a French man, starring actors who are mostly not from Mexico, it feels as phony and disingenuous as it sounds. Mexican audiences have expressed feeling offended by the way the film lets its main character, a cartel member off the hook. Organized crime is a major issue is parts of Mexico and the way this movie portrays Emilia feels like it excuses it. Worse than that, it implies that because Emilia transitioned into a woman, that she is now a different person and not responsible for her previous actions. It also leans into stereotypes about trans people being more aggressive that feel really icky and reductive. I admire what the movie tries to do, but it tells it in such a tasteless and unnuanced way that it comes off very phony.
All of this stuff is genuinely problematic but I think what bothers me most about this movie is that it is a bad musical. This movie did not need to be a musical, it being a musical adds nothing to the story and guess what? Most of the songs are boring, uninspired or just bad, auto tune messes. Sometimes the cinematography in this movie is good, it definitely is pretty to look at but K do t have much else nice to say about it. It is not the worst movie I’ve ever seen but it’s gotta be one of the most shameless Oscar bait movies I’ve seen in a while. This movie getting 13 nominations gives me solace because I know that no matter how out of touch and shameless I think I am, at least I’m not one of the Academy voters who nominated this for 13 awards.
Awards:
The perfect storm of media attention around Emilia Perez has killed its chances in most categories. It goes without saying that Karla Sofia Gascon’s flagrantly racist tweets have all but disqualified her from winning, but Jacques Audiard’s comments about the Spanish language have also been blowing back on him. Back in early January, this and Wicked were projected as the major frontrunners for Best Picture, crazy how things go…
It definitely has a chance at Best International Feature Film since it is nominated for Best Picture but I am going to be very sad if my least favorite nominated film this year loses to my favorite. The two awards Emilia Perez is likely still going to win are Best Supporting Actress for Zoe Saldana and Best Original Song for “El Mal”. I don’t like “El Mal” that much but it is the best song in the movie (not saying much) that is filmed in a unique way. It also isn’t up against anything I’m passionate about so I won’t bellyache if it wins here.
Zoe Saldana has been sweeping the Best Supporting Actress award this season and I have no reason to believe they’d switch up for the Oscar’s. I am confused as to why she is in Best Supporting Actress, though, because she is more of a main character than Emilia Perez is. I personally think they should’ve been swapped. Zoe Saldana gives a good performance here, it is definitely the best part of the movie, but I still think Ariana Grande’s performance as Glinda was miles better. I believe that despite getting a whopping 13 nominations, Emilia Perez will only be winning two Oscars
Emilia Pérez | Official Trailer | Netflix
The Brutalist
- Nominated for Best Picture
- Nominated for Best Director (Brady Corbet)^
- Nominated for Best Actor (Adrien Brody as Lazlo Toth)*^
- Nominated for Best Supporting Actor (Guy Pearce as Harrison Lee Van Buren)
- Nominated for Best Supporting Actress (Felicity Jones as Erzsebet Toth)
- Nominated for Best Original Screenplay
- Nominated for Best Score*^
- Nominated for Best Production Design
- Nominated for Best Cinematography*^
- Nominated for Best Film Editing
Prediction: 3 Wins
The Brutalist is a type of movie I didn’t think could be made anymore. A 3.5 hour long epic chronicling a man in pursuit of the American Dream. This film is honestly so impressive, the scope that it is able to obtain on a budget of less than 10 million dollars is astonishing. This film tells the decade long story of Laszlo Toth, a Hungarian architect who moves to America after surviving the Holocaust. The first thing that stood out to me about this movie is how it looks. This movie is shot in Vistavision which gives every shot of this movie such a rich feel. This film also has jaw dropping cinematography, with too many breathtaking sequences and scenes to count.
Everything about the way this film is made and designed just feels so intentional. Hats off to Brady Corbet, I have no clue how he was able to make a movie this big and this long with that small of a budget. Adrien Brody carries this movie as Laszlo Toth, he is the focal point of this 3 hour long movie and he knocks it out of the park throughout the whole thing. Watching him slowly break and come undone during this movie as he struggles to keep his dream alive was moving and absolutely heartbreaking.
However my favorite performance in this movie was Guy Pearce as Lee van Buren. He commanded every scene he was in and it was so captivating. His character was such a well-written character and Guy Pearce nails the nuances that make you unsure if his character is to be trusted. By the end of this movie you feel like you’ve watched somebody’s entire life play out in front of your eyes and it is a harrowing experience. My biggest complaint is that I don’t really think the film sticks the landing on its ending. Wrapping up a movie this long is a gargantuan task but this movie kinda trips over the finish line unfortunately. Overall this is still an epic movie and an absolute triumph
Awards:
The Brutalist is the exact type of movie that awards voters love and I think that will bode well for it on Oscar night. It is definitely in consideration for Best Picture, but I think Anora and Conclave have an edge over it. I think Adrien Brody gave the best performance in his category by a decent amount and despite Timothee Chalamet winning at the SAG awards for A Complete Unknown, I think Adrien Brody is winning the Oscar. As I previously stated, the Supporting categories are basically already locked in at this point. This movie would be my personal pick for Best Director, I think that what Brady Corbet is able to do with this movie is astonishing and I hope that he is rewarded for it. I think it will be extremely close between him and Sean Baker for Anora, I ended up picking Anora because Sean Baker has been making movies longer than Corbet and I have more faith that the Academy would want to reward him.
Winning Best Original Screenplay, Best Production Design or Best Film Editing isn’t out of the question per se, but I think The Brutalist is unlikely to win any of those awards. The other two awards I think The Brutalist will win on Sunday are Best Score and Best Cinematography. The score for The Brutalist very much has a similar energy to Oppenheimer where it feels like it adds to the scope of the story being told. The score for The Brutalist is honestly more brilliant and atmospheric than it has any right to. Best Cinematography is a category that could go a number of ways, right now I’m feeling like The Brutalist would be the top choice. It is my personal favorite in the category, so I think a win here would be very deserved.
The Brutalist | Official Trailer HD | A24
Anora
- Nominated for Best Picture*
- Nominated for Best Director (Sean Baker)*
- Nominated for Best Actress (Mikey Madison as Anora)
- Nominated for Best Supporting Actor (Yura Borisov as Igor)
- Nominated for Best Original Screenplay*^
- Nominated for Best Film Editing*^
Prediction: 4 Wins
While I would say that ‘I’m Still Here’ was the best of the nominees that I watched, ‘Anora’ might be the one I had the most fun watching. ‘Anora’ is everything I want in an “Oscar movie”; it’s smart and thought provoking without being self-indulgent, boring or pretentious. Of the nominated films that aren’t big blockbusters like ‘Wicked’ or ‘A Complete Unknown’, ‘Anora’ feels the most accessible. It manages to be absolutely hysterical and hilarious while also having a lot of heart and charm. ‘Anora’ is about a sex worker named Anora played by Mikey Madison, who falls for the son of a rich Russian oligarch.
This film has a lot to say about how the rich view people as disposable and for their entertainment that I found to be very interesting. It also critiques the way that we as a society look down on and shame sex work. It honestly is a taboo subject that I am glad that Sean Baker is working to destigmatize. Anora might not be the most expertly written character of all time but Mikey Madison makes her character come to life with her powerhouse performance in this movie. She makes Anora feel very relatable and human through small details and mannerisms. She also gets to do a lot in this performance and shows off how versatile of an actress she is. Mikey Madison is definitely a name to look out for moving forward. I’ve mentioned many of the dramatic moments but Anora is also partially a comedy and it’s the funniest movie I watched this year. I laughed more watching this movie then I ever would’ve expected for what is essentially a Cinderella story with a twist. This movie kind of has it all; humor, action, drama, romance, and I highly recommend checking it out if you have a chance to see it.
Awards:
I am predicting that Anora will be our big winner of the night. The real question is which awards will it win? The one that I think we can discount right off the bat is Best Supporting Actor for Yura Borisov, as he hasn’t gained much momentum in that category. I think it has a genuine chance in every other category it is nominated in though. Best Director is likely going to be very close between Sean Baker for Anora and Brady Corbet for The Brutalist and I had such a hard time picking who I thought would win. I think that it will go to Sean Baker because he is a director who has been slowly building clout for the last 20 years. He has beloved movies such as ‘The Florida Project’ and ‘Tangerine’ that went largely unnoticed at the Oscars, and I think now would be the perfect time to give Sean Baker his flowers.
I am predicting Demi Moore to win for The Substance but I will be just as happy if Mikey Madison wins, because she deserves it. This film’s writing is one of its biggest strengths, it is one of the smartest and funniest movies to come out all year and I think it will easily take Best Original Screenplay. Best Editing I see being a toss up between Anora and Conclave as both films have very punchy and quick editing. I think that since Anora has a bit more going on in its narrative than Conclave does, that it will secure a win in Best Editing.
And finally, Anora is my choice to win Best Picture. For a while I was feeling it would be The Brutalist due to its scope, but I can see how a 3.5 hour biopic might not appeal to everyone. I think that Anora’s strength is that it is a very versatile movie that does a lot of different things but does them very well. I think Anora’s ability to appeal to a wider audience and it’s high standard of quality across the board will help it win Best Picture. So with that, I believe Anora will win Best Picture, Best Director, Best Editing and Best Original Screenplay.
And with that, I have officially given my thoughts on all this year’s major Oscar contenders and who I think will and should win. I will be interested to see how well my predictions hold up. If you want to check out the 97th Academy Awards show, catch it on Hulu at 7 PM ET.
